About Fairway Edge

Fairway Edge uses a regression-based prediction model trained on historical PGA Tour data. The model considers strokes gained metrics, course fit correlations, recent form, field strength, and weather conditions to generate probability estimates for various prop bet outcomes.

Predictions are generated through Monte Carlo simulation (10,000+ iterations) to produce probability distributions for make/miss cut, top finishes, head-to-head matchups, and round scoring.

All model accuracy is tracked transparently on the Model Accuracy page using Brier scores and calibration curves.

The probabilities on this site are free and always will be. Use them to compare against sportsbook lines and make more informed betting decisions.

The premium newsletter ($9.99/month) includes specific picks, unit sizing, analysis of line movement, and context that goes beyond the raw numbers.