About Fairway Edge

Fairway Edge is a free golf prop betting analytics tool. Every week during the PGA Tour season, we publish model-generated probabilities for make/miss cut, top 5/10/20 finishes, head-to-head matchups, and round scoring — all powered by data, not gut feel.

The goal is simple: give golf bettors a transparent, data-driven edge when evaluating prop lines. No paywalled probabilities, no black-box picks. The model's track record is public on the Model Accuracy page — judge for yourself.

The prediction model is built on a regression framework trained against historical PGA Tour data.

The model runs a Monte Carlo simulation (10,000+ iterations per tournament) to produce probability distributions for every prop type. This isn't one prediction — it's thousands of simulated tournaments averaged into stable probability estimates.

Model accuracy is measured using Brier scores (lower is better) and calibration curves. When we say a player has a 70% chance of making the cut, we track whether that actually happens ~70% of the time.

The probabilities on this site are free and always will be. Use them to compare against sportsbook lines and make more informed betting decisions.

Want more? The Fairway Edge newsletter ($9.99/month) goes deeper:

• 5–8 specific prop picks with unit sizing each week
• Full reasoning connecting model output to betting opportunity
• Transparent “what I'm betting” disclosure with real stakes
• Running P&L tracked publicly — no hiding bad weeks

Fairway Edge is a one-person project. I built the model, the site, and write every newsletter because I couldn't find a golf prop tool that was both transparent about its methodology and actually tracked its accuracy.

Follow along on Twitter/X where I post weekly previews, model insights, and results recaps.